Hims & Hers sells health treatments by subscription through an app, covering weight loss, hair loss, sexual health, hormone health and mental health, with nearly 3 million paying members and a supply deal with Novo Nordisk for branded weight-loss drugs. The share price has fallen about 60% from its February 2025 peak because the company deliberately switched from selling cheap copies of drugs it made itself to reselling expensive branded ones, which cut the profit on each sale from 79 cents in the dollar to 64 cents, and left the business burning cash even as sales kept climbing.
Catalysts
FDA decision on peptides. Six of seven peptides were recommended at a July advisory hearing. The company is already running safety and quality testing on the raw ingredients at its Menlo Park facility and says it can move fast once the rules are final. It plans to launch the peptides already permitted (sermorelin, glutathione, NAD+) before year-end.
Testosterone treatment scaling up. The fastest-growing category outside weight loss, three quarters after launch. Expected to become the sixth US category selling more than $100M a year. Injectable and pill versions are due before year-end.
Overseas expansion. The UK, Australia and Germany are each already selling at more than $100M a year, with Canada close behind. Overseas sales are expected to reach at least $600M in 2026.
AI paying for itself. Management expects its AI spending to be recovered within 12 to 18 months through fewer people cancelling and cheaper customer support. An early trial had AI answering 80% of customer questions and cut non-medical support work by roughly half.
A membership or free tier. The chief executive floated combining lab results, wearable data, screening and genetic information into one subscription within "the coming year or two." This would be the first time the company charges directly for the health data idea.
Cash flow turning positive in the second half of 2026, which management has promised. Worth checking whether the cash is genuinely earned or simply borrowed against money customers owe (see Section 3).
The first time the company publishes a member-retention, lab or repeat-purchase figure. Not scheduled, but it would be the strongest proof available, and it triggers the held-back instalment in Section 7.
Key risks
The drop in profit per sale is permanent, not a passing phase. Management said plainly that profit per sale will stay below its historical level as branded weight-loss drugs and overseas sales grow. It has fallen from 79 cents in the dollar (2024) to 74 cents (2025) to 64 cents (Q2 2026). The company also intends to cut weight-loss prices on purpose, which pushes it lower still.
The numbers that would prove the idea are not published. How many members stay, for how long, how many take a lab test, and how many buy a second treatment are all absent from the filings. This is the central problem: the case for buying cannot be confirmed or disproved with public information.
The FTC lawsuit threatens the health data itself, not just the bank balance. The FTC, joined by Utah and Los Angeles County, sued on July 29, 2026, alleging Hims & Hers shared sensitive health information about people's medical conditions with advertising platforms while claiming to protect their privacy, and misled users about billing and cancellation. Meta and Snap are named. The company set aside $62.5M for legal costs in the first half. Two things matter beyond the money. First, a bad outcome could restrict how the company collects and uses the health information people enter, which is the raw material for the whole idea. Second, and worse, the FTC alleges the company advertised free consultations and showed "Pay $0 today" on its forms, then charged people and signed them up to a recurring subscription as soon as a prescription was written, with most customers never speaking to a medical provider before being charged. If that holds up, the medical records this bet depends on are thinner than the company describes. The case rests on the FTC Act, a law governing online subscriptions, and state consumer protection laws, and is pending in a California federal court.
Nearly all the money owed to the company comes from one supplier. Of $375.3M owed to Hims & Hers, $347.4M is rebates owed by drug manufacturers based on how much stock it shipped. The company already counts those rebates when reporting its 64-cent profit per sale, so that figure assumes the rebates get paid. If the rebate terms change, profit drops immediately with nothing to cushion it.
A $1.0B bill falls due in May 2030. The company borrowed $1.0B under terms that convert into shares only if the price reaches about $70.67. At ~$29.56 that will almost certainly not happen, so it becomes $1.0B of cash to repay or re-borrow, in the very year management's 2030 targets are meant to arrive.
Most of the cash on hand is already spoken for. About $619M is owed within twelve months for companies it has bought, against $841M of cash and short-term investments.
Your slice keeps shrinking, with nothing offsetting it. The share count rose 2.7% in six months. Paying staff in shares costs roughly $165M a year, and the company bought back nothing, despite having $225M approved for that purpose and a share price down 55%. Separately, $402.5M of borrowing converts into shares at $29.53, essentially today's price, so early gains get shared with lenders.
The balance sheet is built on acquisitions. Six purchases since early 2025. The premium paid above the value of what was bought stands at $1,101.7M, against a book value for the whole company of $324.1M, a ratio of 3.4 to 1. If those purchases disappoint, that premium gets written off.
Portfolio position
0.2% of TFSA-3.53%
Hims & Hers (HIMS) Investment Evaluation Brief
Last updated: August 12, 2026
Price at writing:~$29.56 (August 12, 2026 intraday, Robinhood; August 10 close was $31.77)
Verdict: Buy under $30. Buy half as much between $30 and $40. Stop buying above $40. Buy extra under $24, but only if the business is still on track. A separate instalment is held back and bought only when the company proves the main idea, whatever the price.
Hims & Hers sells health treatments by subscription through an app, covering weight loss, hair loss, sexual health, hormone health and mental health, with nearly 3 million paying members and a supply deal with Novo Nordisk for branded weight-loss drugs. The share price has fallen about 60% from its February 2025 peak because the company deliberately switched from selling cheap copies of drugs it made itself to reselling expensive branded ones, which cut the profit on each sale from 79 cents in the dollar to 64 cents, and left the business burning cash even as sales kept climbing.
1️⃣ Summary/Snapshot
The bet here is not really about the medication. It is that nine years of records showing which treatments worked for which people, across nearly 3 million members, eventually becomes something valuable that a competitor cannot copy, with today's low-profit drug business paying the bills to bring those people in. buy under , buy half as much between and , stop above .
The plan:
$30
$30
$40
$40
The company is doing what the bet needs, but will not show the proof. It is giving away lab tests free, which only makes sense if the goal is collecting health data. But it does not publish how many members stay, how long they stay, how many take a lab test, or how many buy a second treatment. Those are exactly the numbers that would show whether this is working, and none of them appear anywhere in its financial reports.
The share price is not a bargain. Working the maths backwards from ~$29.56, today's price already assumes the company hits roughly 86% of its own 2030 goal of $6.5B in sales and $1.3B in profit. So this is not a beaten-down stock that everyone has given up on. Buyers are already paying for the plan to mostly work.
If this goes wrong, it goes very wrong. In the pessimistic case the shares are worth $5 to $9. There is no price low enough to make this safe, because the value depends on a future that may not arrive. The only real protection is buying a small amount.
The profit on each sale has permanently dropped, and management has said so. The business is also spending more cash than it brings in, pays staff heavily in shares (which slowly shrinks your slice of the company), and has not bought back a single share to offset it despite the price halving.
At a Glance
Item
Detail
Verdict
Buy < $30 · Half-size $30-$40 · Stop > $40
Current price
~$29.56 (Aug 12, 2026 intraday)
Cost to buy the whole company
~$8.3B once debts are added, not the $7.0B share-price total
What the shares look worth (middle case)
$29-$42 (-2% to +42% vs ~$29.56, Aug 12)
Where analysts think it goes (average / middle)
~$26.14 / ~$24.99 (-12% / -15% vs ~$29.56, Aug 12); sources conflict, see Section 6
Durable advantage
Claimed (its private health records); cannot be checked from public reports
What could push it up
FDA decision on peptides; next results (~Nov 9, 2026)
What could break it
Profit per sale falling below 60 cents in the dollar, or a second cut to forecasts
Next results
~November 9, 2026 (estimated, confirm with the company)
Valuation Summary
Scenario
What a share looks worth
vs ~$29.56 (Aug 12)
Pessimistic
$5 - $9
-83% to -70%
Middle
$29 - $42
-2% to +42%
Optimistic
$74 - $108
+150% to +265%
Every figure above treats shares paid to staff as a real cost, because it is one: it dilutes your ownership. That is unusually strict, and it is deliberate. Paying staff in shares currently costs the company more than two and a half times the spare cash it generates, and there is no share buyback offsetting it, so ignoring it would produce numbers that look nothing like reality.
Notable Analyst Price Targets
Analyst / Firm
Rating
Price Target
Date / Notes
Canaccord Genuity (Maria Ripps)
Buy
$40
Raised from $32, Jul 1, 2026
Barclays (Glen Santangelo)
Overweight
$39
Raised from $29, Jun 18, 2026
Needham (Ryan MacDonald)
Buy
$35
Raised from $30
JP Morgan (Cory Carpenter)
Overweight
$33
Cut from $35, May 12, 2026
BofA (Allen Lutz)
Neutral
$30
Cut from $37, Jul 30, 2026 (most recent)
Leerink
Hold
$25
Maintained
Jefferies
-
$24.50
Cut from $25.50
Street low (per ChartMill)
-
$16.16
Dataset may be stale
One caveat that matters: Every target above was set before the August 10, 2026 results. Analysts are rewriting them right now, so this table will be out of date within weeks.
Where to Find More Detail
Section 4: What the company does and the argument over whether it is a pharmacy or a data business.
Section 6: The valuation maths, including what today's price already assumes.
Section 7: The buying plan and how much to buy.
What would break this and stop the buying:
Full-year sales or profit forecasts cut at any results announcement.
Profit per sale falling below 60 cents in the dollar for two quarters running.
US sales growth slowing for two quarters running, or dropping below 10%.
Full-year 2026 spare cash coming in below 2025's ~$57M, or both the third and fourth quarters negative, measured excluding any money borrowed against customer debts.
Manufacturer rebates starting to go unpaid, or the amount owed growing faster than branded drug sales.
Cash on hand falling below what is owed for acquisitions in the next year.
Still no published figure on member retention, lab tests or repeat purchases by the full-year 2026 results (around February 2027).
The FTC case ending in restrictions on how the company collects or uses the health information people enter.
Wider economy: interest rate direction, wars, oil price shocks. Checked separately by me, not from company filings.
4️⃣ Plain-English Business Explanation
What Hims & Hers actually does
Hims & Hers is a subscription health company that works entirely through an app. You fill in a questionnaire about your symptoms, a licensed clinician reviews it and prescribes something if appropriate, and the medication arrives at your door on a repeating schedule. There is no clinic, no waiting room, and no insurance company in the middle. You pay a monthly fee directly.
It began with conditions people find awkward to raise with a doctor, hair loss and erectile dysfunction, and has since expanded into weight loss, mental health, skin conditions, hormone treatment and lab testing. Five US categories now sell more than $100M a year each, with testosterone about to become the sixth.
Who uses it: Nearly 2.9 million paying members across the US, UK, Canada, Germany, Ireland, France, Spain, Australia and Japan. The most important commercial relationship is with Novo Nordisk, whose branded weight-loss drugs including the Wegovy pill are sold through the platform. Management says Hims & Hers is one of the largest sales channels for that pill's launch.
How the business makes money, and what just changed
The original model was highly profitable. Hims & Hers made its own cheap versions of drugs and sold them at roughly 79 cents of profit per dollar of sales. In March 2026 it switched US weight loss to branded drugs bought from the manufacturers instead.
That changes the economics completely. Buying a branded drug wholesale and reselling it earns a distributor's cut, not a manufacturer's. Profit per sale fell to 64 cents. It also changed how cash moves through the business. Hims & Hers now pays the full list price up front and claims rebates back from the manufacturer afterwards, based on volume. That is why $347.4M of money owed by manufacturers appeared on its books in six months, where there had been almost none.
Why that matters: Because those rebates are tied to how much stock is shipped, the amount owed grows as the business grows. It does not unwind on its own. That is why the company arranged a $400M facility to borrow against those debts, rather than simply waiting to be paid.
The honest framing: management described this cash squeeze as a pause. It is not a pause. It is how a distribution business permanently works.
The debate: is this a pharmacy or a data business?
This is the entire investment question.
The negative view: Hims & Hers is an advertising-led drug reseller with nothing protecting it. Anyone can build an app and sign a supply deal. Profit per sale is falling by design, the business burns cash, growth is being bought through acquisitions, and the AI talk is a story told over an ordinary retail operation.
The positive view (the bet here): Every member generates a record that runs from the first questionnaire, through what was prescribed, through whether they stayed on it, to what happened. As free lab tests get bundled in, the company builds up blood-test readings on millions of people over years. What that eventually teaches the system is a pattern: which treatment, given a particular starting biology, changes which measurements, in which direction. Repeat that across millions of people and you can predict what a treatment will do to someone like you before they take it. That prediction ability, not the pills, is what the bet is on.
Why the ownership structure supposedly matters: A hospital collects far deeper medical data, but hospitals earn more when people are ill. A subscription business earns more the longer someone stays healthy and keeps paying. Same information, opposite incentives.
The honest framing: the company is genuinely doing this, not just talking about it. Giving lab tests away free is a decision about collecting data, not about selling lab tests. But the blood-test records are only just beginning, there is no date or price attached to selling anything built from them, the one figure it all depends on (whether members stay long enough to build a history) is never published, and the FTC has alleged most customers never spoke to a clinician at all. The bet may well be right. It simply cannot be checked today.
A simple analogy
Think of a supermarket loyalty card. The profit on groceries is thin and the products are ordinary, but decades of shopping records eventually let the supermarket predict what you want better than you can. Hims & Hers is running that same play on human health. One difference cuts both ways: people buy groceries every week for life, whereas most people stop taking weight-loss medication within about a year. A loyalty card only works if the customer keeps coming back.
Key business metrics
Metric
Value
Sales (past 12 months)
~$2.58B
Paying members
2,891k (+19% vs a year earlier)
Average monthly spend per member
$92 in Q2 (+21%); $84 across the half year (+4%)
Profit per dollar of sales
64 cents (Q2 2026), vs 74 cents in 2025, 79 cents in 2024
Company's own profit measure, as a share of sales
8% (Q2 2026), vs 15% a year earlier
Spare cash generated (past 12 months)
~$62M
How many members stay, and for how long
Never published
2030 target
$6.5B in sales, $1.3B in profit on its own measure
5️⃣ Current Data Snapshot
Price and valuation (August 12, 2026):
Metric
Value
Price
~$29.56 (Aug 12 intraday; Aug 10 close $31.77)
Total value of all shares
~$7.0B
Cost to buy the whole company, including debts
~$8.3B
Shares in issue
233.3M (Aug 7, 2026)
Shares if everything owed in shares is counted
~260M
52-week range
$13.74 - $65.30
All-time high
$72.98 (Feb 19, 2025)
Company value per dollar of 2026 sales
2.6x
Company value per dollar of 2026 profit (own measure)
27.6x
Company value per dollar of actual spare cash
~134x
Volatility vs the market
2.32x (moves more than twice as much)
Next results
~Nov 9, 2026 (estimated)
Q2 2026 results (announced Aug 10) and forecasts:
Metric
Value
Sales
$753.2M (+38% vs a year earlier)
US sales
$621.8M (+16%); only +3% across the half year
Overseas sales
$131.4M (up from $7.5M; a purchased business added ~$40M)
Profit per dollar of sales
64 cents (vs 76 cents a year earlier)
Loss for the quarter
-$86.3M (vs a $42.5M profit a year earlier)
Profit on the company's own measure
$60.3M (vs $82.2M a year earlier)
Spare cash
-$68.2M
Q3 2026 forecast
Sales $880-900M; own-measure profit $75-95M
Full-year 2026 sales forecast
$3.1-3.3B (raised from $2.7-2.9B)
Full-year 2026 profit forecast
$275-325M (CUT from $300-375M)
The most revealing line in the whole announcement: the sales forecast went up 14% while the profit forecast came down 11%. They added roughly $400M of expected sales and removed roughly $37M of expected profit.
6️⃣ Quantitative Analysis and Valuation
Analyst Ratings
Source
Analysts
Average target
Middle target
Range
ChartMill
23
$26.14 (-12% vs ~$29.56, Aug 12)
$24.99 (-15% vs ~$29.56, Aug 12)
$16.16 - $36.75
stockanalysis.com
15
$31.15 (+5% vs ~$29.56, Aug 12)
Not shown
Not shown
Simply Wall St
Not shown
~$26.82 (-9% vs ~$29.56, Aug 12)
Not shown
Not shown
Reading: The sources disagree badly, and ChartMill's stated high of $36.75 contradicts confirmed targets at $39 and $40, so its data is stale or incomplete. Setting that aside, one thing stands out: the average analyst target sits at or below today's price. That is unusual and reflects a cautious, wait-and-see view across the board. Every target predates the August 10 results.
DCF Valuation
A DCF (discounted cash flow) works out what a business is worth today by estimating the cash it will produce in future years and adjusting those future amounts down to reflect the fact that money arriving years from now is worth less than money today.
A note on method: The usual version of this calculation does not work here, because the company produces almost no spare cash at the moment. So instead of starting from today's cash and growing it, this model builds forward to what 2030 would look like using management's own published targets, then discounts that back to today.
A warning about a common data error: Some financial websites report Hims & Hers as generating around $748M of "levered free cash flow." That figure adds borrowed money to the total, and it is picking up the $1.0B borrowed in 2025 and the $402.5M borrowed in 2026. Real spare cash over the past 12 months is ~$62M. Ignore the website figure. The difference between the two changes the answer completely: at $748M the company looks obviously cheap, at $62M it looks very expensive.
Inputs:
Price (August 12, 2026): ~$29.56 (intraday; Aug 10 close $31.77)
Shares in issue: 233.3M (Aug 7, 2026); ~260M once everything owed in shares is counted, which is the figure used for the per-share results below
Cost to buy the whole company including debts: ~$8.3B
2026 expected sales: $3.2B (middle of the company's forecast)
2026 expected profit, company's own measure: $300M (middle of the forecast)
2026 expected spare cash after all real costs:~-$10M (see the workings below)
Cash position:The company owes more than it holds. $841M of cash and short-term investments against $1,365M borrowed, $703M still owed for acquisitions, and $163M of performance payments
Cost of paying staff in shares: ~$165M in 2026, charged as a full cost in every scenario below
Method: Build to a normal 2030 cash figure, then project 2031-2035 and 2036-2040, plus a value for everything after that
Discount rates: 10-12% (this share moves more than twice as much as the market, which supports the higher end)
Long-run growth after 2040: 2.5-3.5%
How $300M of stated profit becomes roughly zero (2026):
Line
Amount
Profit on the company's own measure (middle of forecast)
$300M
Less shares paid to staff
($165M)
Less spending on buildings and equipment
($140M)
Less interest paid
($5M)
Less tax paid
~$0
Actual spare cash for owners
~-$10M
Spare cash in past years:
Period
Spare cash
Company's own profit measure
Note
2024
Need to confirm
$255M (approx)
Q3 $79.4M and Q4 $59.5M confirmed; first half not retrieved
2025
~$57M
$318M
Added up from quarterly announcements
First half 2026
-$15.2M
$104.6M
Quarterly filing
Q2 2026
-$68.2M
$60.3M
Quarterly filing
Past 12 months
~$62M
~$275M
Management quoted $263M, but that was cash from operations before buildings and equipment, not spare cash
The gap between the company's stated profit and the cash actually left over runs at roughly $200M a year, eaten by buildings, equipment and shares paid to staff. That gap, not the headline growth rate, is the real financial problem here.
Valuation Summary:
Scenario
What a share looks worth
vs ~$29.56 (Aug 12)
Pessimistic
$5 - $9
-83% to -70%
Middle
$29 - $42
-2% to +42%
Optimistic
$74 - $108
+150% to +265%
Pessimistic (2030 sales of $5.0B, keeping 15 cents of each dollar as profit, spare cash ~$240M · then growing 10% a year, then 6%, then 2.5% forever)
Discount Rate
Value of the company
Value per share
vs ~$29.56 (Aug 12)
10%
~$2.3B
~$9
-70%
11%
~$1.8B
~$7
-76%
12%
~$1.3B
~$5
-83%
Middle (the company hits its 2030 targets: $5.5B sales, $1.3B profit, spare cash ~$600M · then growing 15% a year, then 8%, then 3% forever)
Discount Rate
Value of the company
Value per share
vs ~$29.56 (Aug 12)
10%
~$10.9B
~$42
+42%
11%
~$9.1B
~$35
+18%
12%
~$7.5B
~$29
-2%
Optimistic (the health data starts earning money: 2030 sales of $7.5B, keeping 25 cents of each dollar, spare cash ~$1,050M · then growing 20% a year, then 10%, then 3.5% forever)
Discount Rate
Value of the company
Value per share
vs ~$29.56 (Aug 12)
10%
~$28.1B
~$108
+265%
11%
~$22.9B
~$88
+198%
12%
~$19.2B
~$74
+150%
Working the maths backwards from today's price
Starting from what it costs to buy the whole company today (~$8.3B) and asking what the future would have to look like to justify that:
Today's price implies the company produces ~$475M of genuine spare cash in 2030.
Adding back the costs stripped out along the way, that implies ~$1,120M of profit on the company's own measure.
Management's published 2030 target is $1,300M.
In other words, buyers today are already paying for roughly 86% of the company's own plan to come true.
Interpretation
At ~$29.56 the shares sit at the very bottom of the middle case ($29-$42), not below it. Depending on the discount rate used, the gain if things go to plan is somewhere between -2% and +42%. That is far less than you would expect from a share that has fallen 60%.
This is not a share priced for disaster. It is priced for slightly-less-than-plan. There is no pessimism built into the price, and no discount for the chance that the plan is missed.
The health data idea costs you nothing, but you are not being paid to take the risk either. You are paying close to full price for the drug business as management describes it, and getting the data idea thrown in. That is a reasonable way to buy a long-shot. It is NOT a safety cushion.
What happens if the plan disappoints: If 2030 comes in at $5.0B of sales keeping 15 cents in the dollar instead of $6.5B keeping 20 cents, the shares are worth $5-$9, a fall of 70% to 83% from today. The range of outcomes runs from roughly $5 to roughly $108, a spread of about twenty times. That is not the model being vague, that is the actual situation.
No entry price makes this safe. How much you buy, not what you pay, is the protection. A falling price must NOT be treated as the shares getting better value.
7️⃣ Strategy
How much to buy (the main protection).
Target: 2% to 3% of your total invested money. Confirm your figure. At ~$29.56, a 200-share target is roughly $5,900, which fits 2-3% of a $200k-$300k portfolio. If yours is a different size, change the share count and keep the percentage fixed.
Because no price makes this safe, the position has to be small enough that losing all of it does not hurt the overall portfolio. The percentage is the limit that matters, not the share count.
Build the position over roughly 24 months. This continues an existing holding rather than starting one.
Buying on weakness.
Price
Rule
Above $40
Stop buying. Above the middle case at every discount rate tested.
$30 to $40
Buy half a normal instalment. Only the most generous assumption supports this range.
Under $30
Buy a full instalment. Current zone at ~$29.56.
Under $24
Buy a double instalment, but only if none of the warning signs in Section 3 have fired. Below $24 the market is saying the 2030 plan is being abandoned, and the pessimistic case at $5-$9 says there is a long way still to fall. This only fires on evidence, never on the price alone.
Buying on proof.
Hold back roughly 25% of the target position to buy when the company proves the idea, rather than when the price drops. The ladder above only buys as the shares fall, which on its own is the wrong instinct for a bet that depends on evidence appearing. If the proof arrives, you should own more, even at a higher price. This instalment can be bought above $30 and is not blocked by the $40 stop.
Any one of these counts as proof:
The company publishes a figure for member retention, how long members stay, lab test numbers, or repeat purchases, for the first time.
Profit per sale holding steady for two quarters running. Note this is holding steady, NOT returning to the old 75-cent level; management has said that will not happen, so a recovery trigger would never fire.
Spare cash positive for two quarters running, measured excluding money borrowed against customer debts.
A membership or data product actually launched with a price attached.
The one condition: Keep buying only while none of the warning signs in Section 3 have fired. If any of them fires, all buying stops, on weakness and on proof alike, until the situation is reassessed.
How long to hold: 3-5+ years, with the full-year 2026 results (around February 2027) as the first firm checkpoint on whether the company starts publishing proof.
Why the plan says buy at a price the valuation calls fair: The middle case starts at $29 and the buying zone starts under $30, so this plan buys at roughly fair value for the drug business by itself. That is deliberate, not an oversight. The reason to buy is the health data idea being thrown in free, not a discount on the existing business. If that idea fails, the valuation says this loses most of its value no matter what you paid. Keep it small.
8️⃣ Open Questions
Will the company publish a member-retention, lab or repeat-purchase figure by the full-year 2026 results? If the health data idea is real, management has every reason to prove it, and two more quarters of silence tells you something in itself.
Is the promised second-half cash recovery genuinely earned, or simply borrowed against the $400M facility? This is checkable in the borrowing section of the cash flow statement.
What does the branded weight-loss business actually earn per order? The profit per order, the size of the manufacturer rebate, and how much a branded customer is worth against what it cost to acquire them are all undisclosed.
Does the FTC allegation that most customers never spoke to a clinician hold up? If it does, the medical records this bet depends on are considerably weaker than described.
How does the company handle the $1.0B repayment due in May 2030, given it will almost certainly not convert into shares?
Spare cash figures for 2023 and 2024, to complete the history (source: the annual filings).
Why no share buyback with the price down 55% and $225M approved? The $619M owed for acquisitions within a year is the likely answer, but it should be confirmed at the next results.
Research for personal use. Not investment advice. Verify the price, share count, debts, and any recent developments through original sources before buying or selling. The valuation is a way of testing scenarios, not a forecast; for a company that currently produces no spare cash, small changes to the 2030 assumption move the answer enormously.