Portfolio position
(UiPath, Inc. — $11 Call, Aug. 21st 2026, ~$2.62 premium)
A multi-stage DCF was performed using three scenarios.
Current stock price (spot): ~$11.30 (at time of entry)
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Y1–3) | Stage 2 (Y4–7) | Terminal | Discount | Equity Value | Fair Value / Share | Upside vs $11.30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 10% | 8% | 2.0% | 10% | ~$7.3B |
| ~$13.05 |
| ~+15% |
| Base | 18% | 15% | 2.5% | 9% | ~$9.6B | ~$17.15 | ~+52% |
| Bull | 20% | 15% | 2.5% | 8.5% | ~$10.6B | ~$18.90 | ~+67% |
Summary:
This is not a deep structural mis-pricing, but it aligns reasonably with intrinsic value under realistic execution assumptions.
Upside is primarily dependent on operational delivery rather than simple multiple expansion.
The trade is based on:
There are at least two earnings cycles before expiration, allowing time for the thesis to play out.
This is an execution confirmation thesis rather than a narrative expansion thesis.
The option is not cheap. Volatility is already pricing significant uncertainty.
Disciplined management is required because implied volatility may compress after earnings.
The strike selection is defensive-to-balanced, appropriate in a high-IV regime.
Although breakeven at expiration requires a ~20–25% move, the position does not need to be held to expiration. Gains can be realized prior to breakeven as intrinsic value builds and delta increases.
When paired with higher-strike $20 calls:
This improves probability-weighted portfolio outcomes.
If the option declines approximately 30% from entry, exit to preserve capital.
Take profit if a gain of at least 30% is realizable.
This defines both downside and upside parameters clearly and prevents emotional decision-making.
Discipline is required due to elevated volatility at entry.
This is not a low-volatility mis-pricing opportunity.
It is a structured, execution-based trade in an elevated volatility environment.
As a standalone trade, conviction should be moderate.
As a portfolio adjustment alongside higher-strike exposure, the structure is coherent and risk-balanced.
Success depends on: