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Theses

Versioned investment theses — public on this space.

Conviction— rating on each thesis:
LowMediumHigh
ITRIequity
Conviction
High
Horizon
2 - 5 years

Itron makes the smart meters and the software that run them for electric, gas, and water utilities, with about 100 million networked devices deployed worldwide. A cyberattack scare knocked the stock from about $142 down to ~$81, and while the business has become much more profitable, a close look at the cash flow shows much of that improvement was one-time, so today's price is closer to fair than the headline drop suggests.

v10 · Jun 29, 2026

Portfolio position

  • 5.8% of TFSA+4.66%
NOWequity
Conviction
High
Horizon
2 - 5 YEARS

ServiceNow runs the software that most of the Fortune 500 use to automate their internal work, from IT tickets to HR to security, with customers ranging from General Mills and Warner Bros. Discovery to government agencies like the U.S. Department of Energy. Its stock has been cut by more than half from its 2025 high and recently slid back near its lows (to ~$95 on June 18, 2026) on renewed fears that AI will make software like this obsolete, even though the business kept growing the whole time.

v5 · Jun 24, 2026

PLTRequity
Conviction
High
Horizon
5 - 7 years

Leadership team with strong track record (Reading Zero to One lets reveals the blueprint), and incredible growth numbers

v5 · May 21, 2026

Portfolio position

  • 12.7% of TFSA+383.73%
ASMLequity
Conviction
High
Horizon
2 - 5 years

Monopoly business in the AI build out and chip manufacturing

v1 · May 21, 2026

Portfolio position

  • 8.5% of RRSP+47.45%
NRGequity
Conviction
Medium
Horizon
2 - 5 years

NRG Energy sells electricity and home services to roughly 8 million customers under brands like Reliant and Green Mountain Energy, and after doubling its power plant fleet to about 25 gigawatts through the LS Power deal it now owns one of the largest generation fleets in the country, right as data centers drive a sharp surge in US power demand. The stock has fallen about from its 52-week high near $190 to ~$141.55, even as the company guides to double-digit earnings growth.

PATHequity
Conviction
Medium
Horizon
2 - 5 years

UiPath sells the software robots that automate repetitive office work for thousands of large enterprises across banking, insurance, and healthcare, and is now betting it can become the trusted layer that also coordinates AI agents. Its stock has been cut roughly in half from its 52-week high to ~$10 on fears that AI agents will make its core product obsolete, even as the company just turned its first full-year profit.

v4 · Jun 24, 2026

CBIL.TOcash_like
Horizon
N/A

CBIL is a Canadian cash-management ETF that holds nothing but short-dated Government of Canada Treasury Bills (maturities generally under three months). It exists to do one job well: turn idle Canadian cash into a safe, liquid, interest-bearing position that pays out monthly, without the lockups of a GIC or the credit risk of a bank deposit. It is backed by the full faith and credit of the Government of Canada, trades on the TSX like any stock, and holds its unit price very tightly around $50 because the underlying T-bills barely move. The trade-off is yield: with the Bank of Canada overnight rate at 2.25%, CBIL currently yields roughly 2.1-2.3% after its 0.10% fee. This is not a growth instrument or a return generator. It is a parking spot for capital and a shock absorber for the portfolio: a place to hold "dry powder" that earns a modest yield while you wait for deployment opportunities, and a position that holds its value when risk assets sell off.

BILcash_like
Horizon
N/A

BIL is the US-dollar equivalent of CBIL: a cash-management ETF that holds nothing but short-dated US Treasury Bills (1-3 month maturities). It does one job, parking cash safely in the most liquid, most trusted government debt market in the world, and pays the income out monthly. It is backed by the full faith and credit of the US government, trades on the NYSE, and holds its price tightly around $91-92. Because the US Federal Reserve's policy rate sits meaningfully above the Bank of Canada's, BIL currently yields around 4.0%, notably higher than CBIL's ~2.2%. For a Canadian investor, that higher yield comes with a catch: BIL is denominated in US dollars, so you take on CAD/USD currency risk. The exchange rate can move more in a week than BIL yields in a year, which means BIL is really two bets in one: a bet on US short-term rates (the safe part) and a bet on the US dollar versus the loonie (the volatile part). It is an excellent USD cash-parking and hedging tool if you already think in USD or want USD exposure; it is a currency bet wearing a safe-asset costume if you do not.

Portfolio position

  • 7.3% of TFSA+9.90%
25%

v7 · Jun 26, 2026

Portfolio position

  • 3.1% of TFSA+5.77%

Portfolio position

  • 17.5% of FHSA+9.13%
  • 2.1% of TFSA+13.91%

v2 · May 21, 2026

Portfolio position

  • 1.4% of FHSA+0.00%
  • 2.9% of RRSP-0.04%

v2 · May 21, 2026

Portfolio position

  • 1.7% of RRSP-0.11%